Current Situation of Polyester Staple Fiber Market (1)

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Introduce the current situation of polyester staple fiber market, from the aspects of raw material cost, production expansion cycle and supply capacity.

Current situation of polyester staple fiber market

In the first half of 2022, the price center of polyester staple fiber will gradually move upward during the adjustment. Energy shortage, the Russian-Ukrainian war, the epidemic control and production reduction, the inflation crisis, etc. gathered in the first half of the year, which promoted the continuous upward movement of the overall price of polyester staple fiber. In particular, the price of crude oil and polyester raw materials rose sharply due to the Russian-Ukrainian war in March, and there was a strong upward trend in June due to energy shortage and inflationary pressure. , and then fell back to the level before the big rally due to concerns about trading "recession". This year as a whole presents a situation where the macro side is basically giving way to the macro side, that is, the macro side dominates the market.

In terms of raw material cost, staple fiber raw materials are mainly PTA/MEG.

Staple fiber

The impact of the trend of PTA this year is mainly on the PX side this year. The supply is tight, the inventory is continuously removed, and there has been a relatively strong rise. Mainly due to several expectations. One is the disappointment of expectations for new production capacity. This year was originally the year when PX was put into production. It was originally expected that more than 10 million tons of production capacity would be put into production. Starting from the second half of last year, the market was significantly bearish on PX and suppressed its processing fees under the original expectation of large-scale production. So far, a set of 900,000 tons has been put into production), which has led to the production reduction scale of the PX unit reaching a historical high under low processing costs. The second is that the demand for refined oil products is strong and the tense situation reduces the conversion rate of oil, which suppresses the production of PX. These have led to the tight supply of PX, and the continuous destocking pushes up prices, thereby driving PTA. From a later point of view, the PX device and PTA, which were put into production after a delay, are also planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter.

For MEG, this year is relatively miserable. Similar to PX, this year is also the year when MEG was put into production, but the implementation situation is relatively high. In the first half of this year, 5 sets of 2.1 million tons were put into production, and the production capacity growth rate reached 10%. In 2023, there are still many sets of devices that will be put into production, which has led to the gradual accumulation of the MEG market this year, the price has fallen, and most companies have suffered serious cash flow losses. In the near future, MEG inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that after the new equipment is put into operation in the third and fourth quarters, the supply side will continue to increase, and the overall load may run at a low level. It is difficult to get out of the possibility of a strong rise, but there are still opportunities in stages.

Polyester staple fiber has entered the expansion cycle, and the growth rate of production capacity has increased significantly.

The expansion cycle of polyester staple fiber is mainly based on the supporting capacity expansion of large refining and chemical integrated plants. For example, Xinfengming, Hengyi, Yizheng, Zhongtai, etc. have their own upstream supporting PTA and other raw material plants. At present, the production plan is relatively clear. After implementation, the production capacity of integrated factories with PTA devices will account for 59%. Of course, the increase in the integration rate also means the further concentration of the overall production capacity. Most of the projects planned and put into operation in the later stage are concentrated in the Jiangsu area, and the overall proportion of Jiangsu will further increase to account for more than half of the total production capacity in the country. , Jiangyin area in Huaxi Village, Yizheng area, Suqian staple fiber base in Hengyi in the future, and Xuzhou where Xinfengming was put into production. There is a strong cost advantage in the integrated factory, and the competition in the polyester staple fiber industry is relatively more intense.

Short fiber operation

The high profit of staple fiber has been significantly reduced last year, and it has been running at a loss since this year. The average cash flow of 1.4D direct spinning polyester staple from 2022 to now is about -53 yuan / ton, compared with 335 yuan in the same period last year. / ton decreased by 388 yuan / ton, and the reduction and shutdown of the overall factory also gradually increased. In the first half of 2022, due to the Spring Festival holiday in January and February, some polyester factories have reduced and stopped production. Especially in April and May, the domestic epidemic control has led to limited logistics in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, affecting the supply of raw materials and product delivery, and Jiangyin, an important production base for staple fibers, has also been closed and managed, resulting in major local polyester staple fiber manufacturers such as China. All macro stops, Sanfang Lane is half-stopped and closed for operation, etc., resulting in a further decrease in the overall start-up load of polyester staple fibers. The overall operating load dropped to a historical level. Although it has rebounded recently, it is still low in the same period. The overall operating rate of polyester staple fiber in the first half of the year was significantly lower than the same period of previous years. With the launch of new production capacity, the overall low-level trend of construction starts may continue in the later period.

In terms of inventory, after entering this year, under high cost and low demand, factory inventory has gradually accumulated. The downstream polyester yarn enterprises also purchase small batches on demand and maintain a low raw material inventory operation. Their product inventory has reached a historical high, which is basically more than a month's inventory. Some spinning mills are under great pressure. At present, the entire market inventory is in downstream products, and the entire industrial chain is blocked downstream.

Staple fiber manufacturer

Jiangyin Yongbang Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. mainly produces various white and black regenerated short fibers. The staple fibers produced are of high quality and trustworthy. For purchase, please feel free to contact us, we will serve you wholeheartedly.

 

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